These predictions were first posted on my business website, kennedyresearchllc.com last night.
In 2014, I was pretty accurate on my election predictions for both senators and governors. But I did not make my predictions public. I have been kicking myself ever since. So this year, I am putting my predictions up on my blog. I will probably spend the next two years kicking myself for doing so.
My general rule is never go against the polls. This election might be an outlier, but I still feel that the polls offer the best guidance, all other things being equal, which they usually are.
My prediction for the presidential election is that Clinton ends up beating one of the very few Republicans capable of losing to her. That despite an inept campaign, ethical violations, and an inability to appeal to moderates who were looking for a reason to vote for her. The final popular vote is something like Clinton 48.5%, Trump 45.5%, Johnson 4.0%, and Stein 2.0%. Clinton wins the electoral college by 323 to 215. The state-by-state winners are:
Predictions for the Electoral College
STATE VOTES WINNER COMMENTS
Alabama 9 Trump Southern state
Alaska 3 Trump Usually a Republican state
Arizona 11 Trump Resistance to immigration is high.
Arkansas 6 Trump Southern state, done with the Clintons
California 55 Clinton Strongly Democratic state
Colorado 9 Clinton More blue than purple. A stronger Senate candidate might have helped Trump
Connecticut 7 Clinton Strong Democratic state
Delaware 3 Clinton Strong Democratic state
District of Columbia 3 Clinton Not a state but strongly Democratic
Florida 29 Clinton One of two top battlegrounds. I may be kicking myself tomorrow.
Georgia 16 Trump A close state but southern
Hawaii 4 Clinton Strong Democratic state
Idaho 4 Trump Wilderness
Illinois 20 Clinton Republican Governor but still too Democratic to be close
Indiana 11 Trump Pence helps
Iowa 6 Trump The state has historically been good to Trump, bad to the Clintons
Kansas 6 Trump Midwestern, not industrial
Kentucky 8 Trump Southern state
Louisiana 8 Trump Southern state
At large 2 Clinton Still a blue state, despite a Republican governor and senator
First District 1 Clinton Traditionally a Democratic district
Second District 1 Clinton Carried in part by state-wide strength
Maryland 10 Clinton Republican governor could not have helped Trump even if he wanted to
Massachusetts 11 Clinton Despite some recent Republicans at the state level, this was never contested
Michigan 16 Clinton Trump’s blue collar appeal does not overcome traditional Democratic strength. If this state goes for Trump, expect him to win the Presidency handily.
Minnesota 10 Clinton Despite a Republican House, Democrats are still the stronger party
Mississippi 6 Trump Southern state
Missouri 10 Trump Southern state
Montana 3 Trump Wilderness
At Large 2 Trump Rural states go for Trump
First District 1 Trump
Second District 1 Trump Propelled by strength in the rest of the state.
Third District 1 Trump Republican state
Nevada 6 Clinton Reid’s turn out the vote machine and a strong Senate candidate help.
New Hampshire 4 Clinton Will Republicans ever challenge again in the Northeast?
New Jersey 14 Clinton Even without the bridge Christie would not have helped win this state
New Mexico 5 Clinton Might have been more competitive with a stronger Republican (of course you can say that about every state)
New York 29 Clinton Traditionally Democratic and Clinton’s third home state
North Carolina 15 Clinton The second key battleground state. Clinton maintains a narrow margin in recent polls
North Dakota 3 Trump Rural state
Ohio 18 Trump Of the key Midwestern states, this is the only one Trump looks likely to win
Oklahoma 7 Trump Rural state
Oregon 7 Clinton Traditional Democratic state
Pennsylvania 20 Clinton A better campaign might have translated Trump’s populism into a win.
Rhode Island 4 Clinton Traditional Democratic state
South Carolina 9 Trump Southern state
South Dakota 3 Trump Rural state
Tennessee 11 Trump Southern state
Texas 38 Trump Southern state on the border.
Utah 6 Trump No third party victory
Vermont 3 Clinton Traditional Democratic state
Virginia 13 Clinton Polls still show a solid, but narrower lead for Clinton
Washington 12 Clinton Traditional Democratic state
West Virginia 5 Trump Southern state
Wisconsin 10 Clinton Still a blue state.
Wyoming 3 Trump Rural state