Predictions for the presidential race

These predictions were first posted on my business website, last night.

In 2014, I was pretty accurate on my election predictions for both senators and governors. But I did not make my predictions public. I have been kicking myself ever since. So this year, I am putting my predictions up on my blog. I will probably spend the next two years kicking myself for doing so.

My general rule is never go against the polls. This election might be an outlier, but I still feel that the polls offer the best guidance, all other things being equal, which they usually are.

My prediction for the presidential election is that Clinton ends up beating one of the very few Republicans capable of losing to her. That despite an inept campaign, ethical violations, and an inability to appeal to moderates who were looking for a reason to vote for her. The final popular vote is something like Clinton 48.5%, Trump 45.5%, Johnson 4.0%, and Stein 2.0%. Clinton wins the electoral college by 323 to 215. The state-by-state winners are:

Predictions for the Electoral College

STATE                              VOTES     WINNER        COMMENTS

Alabama                        9                Trump             Southern state

Alaska                             3                Trump             Usually a Republican state

Arizona                           11             Trump             Resistance to immigration is high.

Arkansas                        6                Trump             Southern state, done with the Clintons

California                       55             Clinton            Strongly Democratic state

Colorado                        9                Clinton            More blue than purple. A stronger Senate candidate might have helped Trump

Connecticut                  7                Clinton            Strong Democratic state

Delaware                       3                Clinton            Strong Democratic state

District of Columbia   3                Clinton            Not a state but strongly Democratic

Florida                            29             Clinton            One of two top battlegrounds. I may be kicking myself tomorrow.

Georgia                          16             Trump             A close state but southern

Hawaii                             4                Clinton            Strong Democratic state

Idaho                              4                Trump             Wilderness

Illinois                             20             Clinton            Republican Governor but still too Democratic to be close

Indiana                           11             Trump             Pence helps

Iowa                                6                Trump             The state has historically been good to Trump, bad to the Clintons

Kansas                            6                Trump             Midwestern, not industrial

Kentucky                       8                Trump             Southern state

Louisiana                       8                Trump             Southern state


At large                        2                Clinton            Still a blue state, despite a Republican governor and senator

First District                1                Clinton            Traditionally a Democratic district

Second District          1                Clinton            Carried in part by state-wide strength

Maryland                       10             Clinton            Republican governor could not have helped Trump even if he wanted to

Massachusetts            11             Clinton            Despite some recent Republicans at the state level, this was never contested

Michigan                        16             Clinton            Trump’s blue collar appeal does not overcome traditional Democratic strength. If this state goes for Trump, expect him to win the Presidency handily.

Minnesota                    10             Clinton            Despite a Republican House, Democrats are still the stronger party

Mississippi                    6                Trump             Southern state

Missouri                         10             Trump             Southern state

Montana                       3                Trump             Wilderness


At Large                       2                Trump             Rural states go for Trump

First District                1                Trump

Second District          1                Trump             Propelled by strength in the rest of the state.

Third District               1                Trump             Republican state

Nevada                          6                Clinton            Reid’s turn out the vote machine and a strong Senate candidate help.

New Hampshire         4                Clinton            Will Republicans ever challenge again in the Northeast?

New Jersey                  14             Clinton            Even without the bridge Christie would not have helped win this state

New Mexico                5                Clinton            Might have been more competitive with a stronger Republican (of course you can say that about every state)

New York                      29             Clinton            Traditionally Democratic and Clinton’s third home state

North Carolina             15             Clinton            The second key battleground state. Clinton maintains a narrow margin in recent polls

North Dakota               3                Trump             Rural state

Ohio                                18             Trump             Of the key Midwestern states, this is the only one Trump looks likely to win

Oklahoma                     7                Trump             Rural state

Oregon                           7                Clinton            Traditional Democratic state

Pennsylvania               20             Clinton            A better campaign might have translated Trump’s populism into a win.

Rhode Island                4                Clinton            Traditional Democratic state

South Carolina             9                Trump             Southern state

South Dakota               3                Trump             Rural state

Tennessee                    11             Trump             Southern state

Texas                              38             Trump             Southern state on the border.

Utah                                6                Trump             No third party victory

Vermont                        3                Clinton            Traditional Democratic state

Virginia                           13             Clinton            Polls still show a solid, but narrower lead for Clinton

Washington                  12             Clinton            Traditional Democratic state

West Virginia               5                Trump             Southern state

Wisconsin                      10             Clinton            Still a blue state.

Wyoming                       3                Trump             Rural state


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